Betting on the Pennant
A friend proposes the following bet:
"Let's bet on three games the Giants will play. We have to guess the wins and losses in order, and whoever nails it wins."
"Hmmm," you say, "Since there's a 1/2 chance of correctly guessing a single outcome, that's a 1/8 chance of getting all three."
"Exactly. We'll say that ties don't count, and we just keep going until one of our sequences is a hit."
"That sounds like fun!"
"I'll let you name your sequence first, and I'll even give you 5:4 odds; if you win I'll give you $50, but if I win you only need to pay $40."
"Seriously? No way I can pass up that bet!"
Is this a fair bet,
or is your friend taking advantage of you?